Anatomy of Short Wars: India-Pak and Israel-Iran Conflicts
*Jehanzeb Iqbal has an MSc in Arts & Science of Warfare. The author can be reached at gulegulmit2015@gmail.com.
** The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS).
Abstract: The military analysts from across the globe have already carried out detailed analysis of the conflicts between India-Pakistan & Israel-Iran and have generally defined the South Asian conflict as a classic example of modern warfare fought more in electromagnetic spectrum then physical, while the Middle Eastern conflict is highlighted by the intelligence marvel of Mossad in terms of having identified and neutralized precise targets inside Iran, however, the Iranian response in the succeeding days undermined the Israel’s air defence systems. Accordingly, this article rather tries to find the causes for the short duration of these conflicts despite the war stamina and military potential of the warring sides.
Introduction. According to Carl von Clausewitz, War is an instrument or extension of political goals or objectives, necessitating the continuation of war until these objectives are attained. The recent conflicts in South Asia and the Middle East ended in such a short and sudden manner that the objectives of the warring sides became blurred and delusional. Though India and Pakistan in South Asia and Iran and Israel in the Middle East have made their respective claims of having achieved their respective objectives, Pakistan and Iran even went onto celebrate their victories at national level in these conflicts, while governments of Israel and India also claimed to have achieved the desired objects from the conflicts. The military analysts from across the globe have already carried out detailed analysis of both the conflicts and have generally defined the South Asian conflict as a classic example of modern warfare fought more in electromagnetic spectrum then physical, while the Middle Eastern conflict is highlighted by the intelligence marvel of Mossad in terms of having identified and neutralized precise targets inside Iran, however, the Iranian response in the succeeding days undermined the Israel’s air defence systems. Accordingly, this article rather tries to find the causes for the short duration of these conflicts despite the war stamina and military potential of the warring sides.
Indo-Pakistan War. After the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on 22 April 2025, Indian state authorities and media blamed Lashkar e Tayyeba, an organization India accuses of being sponsored by Pakistan, reason for all the terrorism inside Indian administered Kashmir; the momentum led to Indian air force strikes inside Pakistan on the night of 6/7 May attacking madrasahs (religious seminary) in Bahawalpur, Lahore and Muridke in Punjab and Muzaffarabad in Pakistani administered Kashmir and claimed to have precisely hit the terrorist training camps. However, during the same precise targeting operation, Pakistan claimed to have downed 5-6 Indian Air Force planes while they were releasing their payloads. The downing of Indian planes remained contested by both sides for a few weeks, only to be confirmed by international observers and the fact that the Indian Air Force was not used thereafter till the end of the conflict on the eventful day of 10 May 2025. During the succeeding three and a half days’ war, India claimed to have hit the terrorist camps on the first day, also kept probing to induce a response from Pakistan with the use of long-range artillery, loitering munitions, medium-range missiles and on top of it all rhetoric in the media. While the only response from Pakistan came on 10 May after India had conducted Brahmos missile strikes on Pakistani airbases, that was rapidly followed by a US-mediated ceasefire on the same day.
As a success in the conflict, India claimed to have not only eliminated terrorists’ sanctuaries but also set a new norm to attack Pakistan at will whenever a terrorist attack happens in India. Whereas, Pakistan claimed to have downed Indian Air Force’s mainstay Rafael fighters and a Russian-made S-400 air Defence system. Both India and Pakistan immediately launched diplomatic offensives to make their version be believed by the World.
The reasons for the short duration of war between India and Pakistan can be explained; 1stly, necessity to stay below the nuclear threshold; 2ndly, swift escalation on 10 May 2025 could have led to vast devastation even staying below the nuclear threshold; 3rdly, absence of any geographical objectives by the either side; and finally both sides were at a point to claim a victory in notional domain.
However, most of the objectives set by India before initiation of this short war could only be achieved in notional domain; Indian media could rhetorically justify their success to local audience while the external audience even did not buy Indian blame of Pakistan’s involvement in Pahalgam incident; statements on the incident issued by UN, BRICS and even the QUAD did condole and condemned the incident but did not mention any Pakistani involvement in the incident. While, the Indian Defence Minister at the end of the SCO’s meeting of Defence Ministers refused to sign the Protocol, as it did not make any mention of the Pahalgam incident. A rather more dangerous outcome of this conflict between these nuclear-armed South Asian states is the fact that it has immensely rendered leverage to non-state actors to bring South Asia’s more than 1.5 billion people to the brink of a nuclear holocaust as and when they desire.
Israel-Iran War; On the early morning of 13 June 2025, Israel attacked Iran, hitting numerous targets simultaneously, including nuclear sites of Fordo and Natanz, military bases and residential areas, especially the senior leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). In the succeeding 12 days, the world witnessed numerous Israeli attacks and a response from Iran; though Israel dominated Iran’s airspace through modern air assets, Iranian missiles, especially the hypersonic missiles, kept hitting targets inside Israel and causing a fair quantum of damage too. Mossad made its mark from the word go by having precisely targeted the IRGC’s leadership and successfully galvanising technology and spy-craft by using small drones for precise targeting.
Israel, having succeeded in the initial phase with precise targeting, kept becoming more vulnerable each passing day to Iranian missiles. The US entry into the war with precision strikes that destroyed the nuclear sites in Fordo and Natanz, followed by a response by Iran on US bases near Doha to end the war, gave a sense of victory in the notional domain.
The reasons for the short duration of war between Israel and Iran can be; 1stly, Israel’s air defence capability and Iranian regime’s credibility were waning quickly; 2ndly, Though Israel has been aggressively pursuing her geographical objectives in the immediate neighbourhood but in this war either side lacked any geographical objectives; 3rdly, escalation could have led to engulf the other middle Eastern countries; and finally the common factor, both sides were at a point to claim a victory in notional domain.
Conclusion. At the start of both the short wars, Israel and India were considered to be more capable belligerents with the strength to subdue the enemy with their technological and military might; however, both came out as more undermined than prevalent. Israel and the US ended the war having destroyed Iranian nuclear sites, while Iran ended with having broken Israel’s myth of invincibility, while also saving the regime. In the South Asian short war, India ended up targeting Terrorist camps inside Pakistan and establishing a norm to initiate a war at will with Pakistan, irrespective of its outcome. While the overwhelming concern for India and Pakistan remained the optics, both nations cannot lose ascendancy; they both profess to have over each other. In both conflicts, the optics and role of the US as the sole international mediator remained overwhelmingly important; as President Trump has taken all the due or undue credit for the peace, the warring parties in both conflicts remained split on giving credit to President Trump for the sake of optics.